Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance has devised an investment that hedges the value of real estate in case of a market downturn.
Shiller argues that homeowners should be able to hedge their home value risk through tradable securities based on home values. “Our homes are a major asset class for which there has never been a liquid market.”
Shiller has formed Macro Securities Research and has applied with the Securities and Exchange Commission for approval of a home hedging strategy called a “macro.”
The macro works like this. At the time a homeowner closes on the purchase of a home the new owner buys a “down” macro to protect against falling real estate prices. An investor would match that investment with an “up” macro, a bet that prices will rise. If prices go down, the investor pays the homeowner, offsetting the decrease in the value of the home. If the value increases, the homeowner loses the cost of the hedge but comes out ahead because of the value increase.
Shiller hopes the SEC will approve the concept and that macros will be trading on the American Stock Exchange before years’ end. He intends to open the security to Los Angeles homeowners first, who have seen a doubling in house values in five years.
Remember, Shiller was the one who foresaw the stock market bubble in 2000 and he thinks his plan is a means of offsetting the fall the real estate market is about to face. This is an idea to keep an eye on.